KNOW WHAT YOU'RE WALKING INTO

This dashboard now updates twice weekly, typically mornings US Eastern. It ran daily through its first ~100 days, but as the conflict settled and the media churn cooled, a daily briefing became redundant more often than not — and wider model context windows now let one human-audited pass cover several days without losing event-level detail. The cadence returns to daily if the conflict reignites. What you see may lag current events by a day or two.

This entire project — code, data pipelines, enrichment — was built with AI agents. I audit it, apply domain-informed guardrails, and catch what I can. But these models hallucinate dates, fabricate figures, and miscalculate with total confidence. I'm pretty good at this and I still get errors all the time.

Intelligence professionals inside the Pentagon use these same models to inform decisions with real consequences. The models don't know when they're wrong. How confident are we that the Pentagon has domain experts reviewing every output?

Here is the harder truth: in a kinetic conflict, accurate information is nearly impossible to obtain. Sources contradict each other. Governments lie. Propaganda is pervasive on every side, and much of the overwhelming volume of data is engineered to mislead.

This is the flood.

No dashboard can drain it. No model can filter it perfectly. What you can do is approach it with good faith and transparency — which is what this project attempts.

Every line of code is open, every data source cited, the entire repository public on GitHub. Fork it. Audit it. Improve it. Call it profound, call it naive, call it silly — the effort is what matters. Sunlight is the only disinfectant that works in the flood.

The full methodology, confidence model, and known limitations are documented in a preprint. If you're going to use this, read it first.

github.com/jethomasphd/WarTheater

Preprint — SocArXiv (doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/su4ng_v1)

This project is built in good faith. No guarantees are made.

The Archive

Complete briefing history — Operation Epic Fury

End of Archive — Complete briefing history from Day 1

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